When Canada legalized cannabis, most provinces refused to allow liquor stores to sell weed as well. The aim: to prevent beer lovers from becoming pot smokers. But the figures tell a more complex story.
Alcohol sales stable overall
Between 2004 and 2022, overall alcohol sales in Canada changed little. Beer lost ground, but ready-to-drink and other spirits made up for the drop. Total volume sold therefore remained relatively constant.
Nova Scotia: an instructive exception
To detect more subtle effects, the researchers set their sights on Nova Scotia, a province that went it alone with legalization.
Unlike most other provinces, it has allowed its liquor board – the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation – to sell cannabis too. As of October 2018, some branches added weed to their catalog. Others remained faithful to alcohol only.
The result: a marked contrast. Overall, alcohol sales fell sharply in October 2018, then recovered slightly without regaining their initial level. The average monthly decline amounts to around 500,000 Canadian dollars.
CAD$800,000 monthly loss for liquor-only stores
In stores selling only alcohol, the plunge is even sharper: a monthly loss of 800,000 Canadian dollars. But in stores selling both alcohol and cannabis, alcohol sales rose by $300,000 a month after legalization.
Substitution or a shift in habits?
It’s hard to say. The data do not allow for a definitive reading, but they do open the way to several interpretations.
“Time will tell
The study ends in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts consumption patterns. The authors plan to examine the effects in the longer term, once cannabis sales have reached maturity.
But there’s a major problem: the pandemic has greatly disrupted the alcohol market, without affecting the cannabis market in the same way. It is therefore difficult to clearly attribute future developments to legalization alone.
