The International Energy Agency has just outlined a roadmap for the decarbonization of our society. There’s no guarantee that we’ll be able to follow it in the time allotted.
Carbon neutrality” will be a favorite expression among participants at the forthcoming UN climate summit (Cop 26). Introduced in the Paris Agreement, this concept stipulates that, after significantly reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the countries that signed the 2015 agreement must store their incompressible carbon emissions. For example, by planting forests, veritableCO2 sponges.
Level of effort
At Cop 26, more than a hundred governments will be asked to describe their path to climate nirvana. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is making their work easier. Working on behalf of OECD countries, this club of energy and climate policy experts published a roadmap to carbon neutrality on May 18. In plain English: how much effort each sector of activity will have to make between now and 2050 to decarbonize.
Let’s not prolong the suspense: it’s a crazy job! At the moment, three quarters of the energy we consume comes from fossil fuels. In less than a generation, we need to cure ourselves of our addiction to oil, gas and coal. Possible, but not a sure thing.
5 times less oil
The IEA doesn’t pull any punches. The Paris-based agency is proposing nothing less than a halt to investment in fossil fuels. Starting now! By 2050, oil companies should be extracting no more than 20 million barrels of crude a day: five times less than today.
Because in 30 years, global GDP is set to grow by 40% and the population by a third, we’ll need to produce more energy. Above all, much more electricity, which is the only energy source capable of decarbonizing many uses, starting with transport.
Electric cars should account for 60% of new vehicle sales by 2030, compared with 5% in 2020. According to the IEA, the production of combustion-powered vehicles should be banned from 2040 onwards.
Quadrupling investments
Decarbonizing electricity production will require unprecedented efforts. Every year, the world’s electric utilities will have to commission 630,000 MW of solar power plants and 390,000 MW of wind farms. These capacities are four times greater than those inaugurated in 2020, as the IEA points out. Creating ever more power plants and extraction points (like charging stations for electric cars) requires the development of electricity transmission and distribution networks. The IEA proposes quadrupling investment in these two often neglected activities,
Job destruction
The rapporteurs candidly acknowledge that not all uses will be able to do without fossil fuels. Take, for example, the coal-fired power plants that have recently gone out of service. Hence the importance of equipping them withCO2 capture systems, coupled with geological carbon storage facilities. Hydrogen, the energy star of the moment, will have a role to play in decarbonizing certain carbon-intensive activities, such as steel and fuel production.
The transformation to be accomplished is far-reaching. Yet there is no guarantee that we will be able to carry it out successfully. Reducing fossil fuel consumption will destroy 5 million jobs in the oil and coal industries. It will also drastically reduce the revenues of oil-producing countries. Enough to fuel protest and political reluctance.
Are we ready?
The IEA also stresses the importance of reducing energy waste. By boosting motor efficiencies, reducing urban lighting and reducing our need for mobility. By 2030, the experts stress, we need to improve our energy efficiency by 4% a year: three times better than the average observed over the last 20 years. To achieve this, we’ll need to deploy technologies that don’t yet exist or that are currently being tested. Will they be ready in time?
Strong growth in renewable energies and electricity storage systems will more than quadruple the consumption of minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt and rare earths over the next 30 years. Production processes that are rarely very environmentally friendly. How will our behavior also evolve? Travel, food, the energy efficiency of our homes: 55% of future emissions will be the result of our consumption choices.
Depending on the choices we make, the road to carbon neutrality will be more or less long. Are we really ready to change? Only, no doubt, if the climate transition is sold to us as a social project. Joe Biden aside, no politician is currently capable of doing so.
